Consider
The PSA 10 premium on the Illustration Rare Alolan Dugtrio from Surging Sparks is modest. The gap between the $6.84 raw price and the $124.00 PSA 10 price gives a 28% Return on Grading. A 9 instead of a 10 would likely wipe out the margin here, so be honest about condition.
Most grading maths asks you to guess your odds of a PSA 10 first. This works backwards from the prices instead and tells you what those odds would have to be.
The number is different on every card. It's how confident you'd need to be that this copy gems before grading pays for itself, so 20% means roughly a 1 in 5 shot and 50% means a coin flip.
Grade it if you rate your copy better than that, leave it raw if you don't.
It assumes a 9 is the worst you'll get. Centering and edge whitening send plenty of modern cards back at 8 or lower, and that's not priced in here, so treat this as the floor of the bar rather than the whole of it. Selling fees aren't counted either.
(cost - PSA 9) ÷ (PSA 10 - PSA 9)
You need at least
a 7-in-10 shot (72%) at a PSA 10 for this to pay off.
A PSA 10 puts you $27.16 ahead. A PSA 9 still sells for $26.15, so a disappointing grade costs you $70.69 rather than everything you put in.
Among the 91 cards in Surging Sparks with PSA 10 sale data, Alolan Dugtrio ranks 11th for Return on Grading and 12th by PSA 10 price. Of the 22 Illustration Rare cards with PSA 10 sales, it is 5th for Return on Grading. The median PSA 10 in this set sells for $50.00. 4 of the 91 clear a 100% Return on Grading.
