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the Ultra Rare Drayton from Surging Sparks is one to leave raw for the moment. The gap between the $0.87 raw price and the $31.33 PSA 10 price gives a -66% Return on Grading. Worth rechecking if the raw price drops or PSA 10 demand spikes.
Most grading maths asks you to guess your odds of a PSA 10 first. This works backwards from the prices instead and tells you what those odds would have to be.
The number is different on every card. It's how confident you'd need to be that this copy gems before grading pays for itself, so 20% means roughly a 1 in 5 shot and 50% means a coin flip.
Grade it if you rate your copy better than that, leave it raw if you don't.
It assumes a 9 is the worst you'll get. Centering and edge whitening send plenty of modern cards back at 8 or lower, and that's not priced in here, so treat this as the floor of the bar rather than the whole of it. Selling fees aren't counted either.
(cost - PSA 9) ÷ (PSA 10 - PSA 9)
Not worth grading at any odds
Even a guaranteed PSA 10 ($31.33) wouldn't cover your $90.87 cost (raw + grading + shipping).
A clean raw copy is worth more to you than a slabbed one here. Sell it as is, or keep it for the collection.
Among the 91 cards in Surging Sparks with PSA 10 sale data, Drayton ranks 79th for Return on Grading and 79th by PSA 10 price. Of the 21 Ultra Rare cards with PSA 10 sales, it is 19th for Return on Grading. The median PSA 10 in this set sells for $50.00. 4 of the 91 clear a 100% Return on Grading.
