Skip For Now
The maths doesn't work on the Double Rare Black Kyurem ex from Surging Sparks right now. A -55% Return on Grading comes from the spread between $0.71 raw and $41.00 graded. Better to put the submission slot toward a stronger card from the same set.
Most grading maths asks you to guess your odds of a PSA 10 first. This works backwards from the prices instead and tells you what those odds would have to be.
The number is different on every card. It's how confident you'd need to be that this copy gems before grading pays for itself, so 20% means roughly a 1 in 5 shot and 50% means a coin flip.
Grade it if you rate your copy better than that, leave it raw if you don't.
It assumes a 9 is the worst you'll get. Centering and edge whitening send plenty of modern cards back at 8 or lower, and that's not priced in here, so treat this as the floor of the bar rather than the whole of it. Selling fees aren't counted either.
(cost - PSA 9) ÷ (PSA 10 - PSA 9)
Not worth grading at any odds
Even a guaranteed PSA 10 ($41.00) wouldn't cover your $90.71 cost (raw + grading + shipping).
A clean raw copy is worth more to you than a slabbed one here. Sell it as is, or keep it for the collection.
Among the 91 cards in Surging Sparks with PSA 10 sale data, Black Kyurem ex ranks 58th for Return on Grading and 58th by PSA 10 price. Of the 18 Double Rare cards with PSA 10 sales, it is 5th for Return on Grading. The median PSA 10 in this set sells for $50.00. 4 of the 91 clear a 100% Return on Grading.
