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the Rare Rainbow Lapras VMAX from Sword & Shield is one to leave raw for the moment. A -28% Return on Grading comes from the spread between $21.58 raw and $79.99 graded. Worth rechecking if the raw price drops or PSA 10 demand spikes.
Most grading maths asks you to guess your odds of a PSA 10 first. This works backwards from the prices instead and tells you what those odds would have to be.
The number is different on every card. It's how confident you'd need to be that this copy gems before grading pays for itself, so 20% means roughly a 1 in 5 shot and 50% means a coin flip.
Grade it if you rate your copy better than that, leave it raw if you don't.
It assumes a 9 is the worst you'll get. Centering and edge whitening send plenty of modern cards back at 8 or lower, and that's not priced in here, so treat this as the floor of the bar rather than the whole of it. Selling fees aren't counted either.
(cost - PSA 9) ÷ (PSA 10 - PSA 9)
Not worth grading at any odds
Even a guaranteed PSA 10 ($79.99) wouldn't cover your $111.58 cost (raw + grading + shipping).
A clean raw copy is worth more to you than a slabbed one here. Sell it as is, or keep it for the collection.
Among the 68 cards in Sword & Shield with PSA 10 sale data, Lapras VMAX ranks 17th for Return on Grading and 13th by PSA 10 price. Of the 8 Rare Rainbow cards with PSA 10 sales, it is 3rd for Return on Grading. The median PSA 10 in this set sells for $47.19. 3 of the 68 clear a 100% Return on Grading.
